Nuclear weapons test effects: debunking popular exaggerations that encourage proliferation

‘Science is the organized skepticism in the reliability of expert opinion.’ - Richard Feynman, in Lee Smolin, The Trouble with Physics, Houghton-Mifflin, 2006, p. 307. In 1896, Sir James Mackenzie-Davidson asked Wilhelm Röntgen, who discovered X-rays in 1895: ‘What did you think?’ Röntgen replied: ‘I did not think, I investigated.’ The reason? Cathode ray expert J. J. Thomson in 1894 saw glass fluorescence far from a tube, but due to prejudice he avoided investigating that X-ray evidence!

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

On kindness and curses - a diatribe against fascism

Winston Churchill praises Adolf Hitler to a limited extent in his (Churchill's) 1935 book Great Contemporaries. Why? Hitler's politics were partly responsible for rebuilding Germany in the 1930s. Where Hitler went wrong was not in reducing unemployment to zero, not in restoring German prestige, not (despite today's environmentalism) in building the world's first motorways, people's cars, efficient insecticides to stop the spread of diseases (ahem, together with other organophosphates, such as nerve gases), practical rocket technology (ahem, the V1 and V2 missiles were a step beyond American pioneers like Goddard, because although the blueprint for the V2 is almost exactly - and by coincidence due to the constraints of the physical and engineering factors necessary in liquid fuel rocket design, not plagarism - a scaled up version of Goddard's final rocket), nuclear fission (discovered in Nazi Germany, not in America), etc., etc.:

'The story of [Hitler’s] struggle cannot be read without admiration for the courage, the perseverance, and the vital force which enabled him to challenge, defy, conciliate, or overcome, all the authorities or resistances which barred his path.... Thus the world lives on hopes that the worst is over...' - Winston Churchill, Great Contemporaries, quoted online here.

Of course the date is key, 1935. The Manchester Guardian newspaper reported the first concentration camps in Germany for Jews and many others deemed unworthy, if I recall correctly, a year later, in 1936. So Churchill was writing at a time just before the worst of the Nazi abuses, although of course they had begun with brownshirts raiding Jewish premises as early as 1933.

The importance of this episode and its relevance for a study of the effects of nuclear weapons is the pacifist case, that if we disarm - as Germany was supposed to have been disarmed by 1935 - we are guaranteed peace. The pacifist case is that enforcing disarmament is a technicality, and the first thing to do is to disarm ourselves to show goodwill and encourage others to follow.

Although America and Britain had not completely disarmed by 1935, there had been massive military cutbacks, mainly stemming back to the world economic crisis of 1929. Governments had in effect cut back military expenditure, not so much out of popular pacifist sentiment (although with the memory of the First World War - then known as the Great War - still rife, pacifism was then widely seen as common sense), but out of economic necessity.

What is the risk that such a series of events will arise in the nuclear age, leading to nuclear warfare on a large scale? The problem is clearly there in Churchill's 1935 essay on Hitler: until a dictatorial political leader commits genocide, you can't tell what he/her might do for certain, but you can pick up clues about her/his intentions regarding other cultures, and neighbours. Hitler had certainly made it clear in his 1920s Mein Kampf (at least in the German language edition - the English edition authorised by Hitler in the 1930s had many of the more extreme sentiments edited out for political expediency) that he blamed German defeat in the First World War on a Jews and others who he considered to be polluting German culture and politics.

***


Hitler's fascism is based on the false concept that diversity leads to weakness, and purity leads to strength. Of course purity leads to a cloning, orthodox mentality at some stage, which suppresses dissent. However, for a brief spell, a fascist regime can outrun democracies because the dictatorial leadership - while still relatively sane (before too much corruption and 'shoot the messenger' philosophy isolates them from reality) - can make the regime proceed at breakneck speed. Rearmament in Germany was achieved this way, thanks in part to a clever system of pre-tooling factories and preparing arms production blueprints so that factories can be almost instantly switched from producing peacetime goods to armaments.

This is why Germany rearmed so quickly, and also explains why fascist regimes in general go through a brief spell of very high technological progress, when their scientists are freed from the shackles of financial limitations and other political problems. Hence, the USSR not the US was the first to put not only a satellite into space (Sputnik in 1957) but was also first to put a human into space (Gargarin in 1961). It took a very expensive and carefully managed Apollo programme by the US to regain the ground by putting the first people on the Moon in 1969.

So although dictatorships, by freeing technological and scientific infrastructure from their usual burdens, can produce a brief spurt of progress exceeding that possible in a democracy, in the longer run it is at least sometimes possible for democracy to win over dictatorship, although the cost is likely to be massive. On the issue of what defines fascism, try this:

‘Fascism is not a doctrinal creed; it is a way of behaving towards your fellow man. What, then, are the tell-tale hallmarks of this horrible attitude? Paranoid control-freakery; an obsessional hatred of any criticism or contradiction; the lust to character-assassinate anyone even suspected of it; a compulsion to control or at least manipulate the media ... the majority of the rank and file prefer to face the wall while the jack-booted gentlemen ride by. ... But I do not believe the innate decency of the British people has gone. Asleep, sedated, conned, duped, gulled, deceived, but not abandoned.’ – Frederick Forsyth, Daily Express, 7 Oct. 05, p. 11.

This definition lumps together virtually all the serious issues under one banner, so it is very efficient, including both the dictatorial USSR and the dictatorial Nazis as 'fascists'. This may sound wrong, because the USSR claimed it was morally superior, but remember that the USSR murdered in excess of 20 million, compared to 6 million by the Nazis. I don't really want to ge into the issue that the Nazi-USSR so-called 'peace pact' led them to both invade Poland from opposite sides at the same time, the Nazis sending Jews to concentration camps and the USSR murdering the soldiers by making them line up and them shooting them. (This USSR-Nazi alliance would have continued, possibly leading to some kind of joint USSR-Nazi fascist world domination, if Hitler had not decided to invade his ally the USSR by surprise attack.)

Going back to the issue of nuclear weapons effects, America did not drop nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 as tests or experiments, because it had already done the tests and experiments in the laboratory and at Alamogordo, New Mexico, when a nuclear weapon was detonated on 16 July 1945. It knew perfectly well what the effects would be, from that test data. The heights of burst over Hiroshima and Nagasaki were deliberately selected to allow maximum range of blast, heat and initial radiation injury, while avoiding local fallout.

What is a heresy more than the domestic successes of Hitler, is the fact that nuclear weapons effects were well known when the bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The errors in the effects data were relatively trivial. They knew what would be produced, including the risk of firestorm in Hiroshima, because Pacific USAF commander General LeMay (who was in ultimate control of the bomb drops) had developed the 1,000 bomber firebombing strategy in Japan based on Paul Tibbets (who was in charge of the 509th nuclear bomber group, and was also the pilot of Enola Gay, dropping the nuclear bomb on Hiroshima) experience of incendiary attacks in Europe. To be clear, the pilot of the B-29 who dropped the bomb on Hiroshima had actually informed General LeMay of the high explosive to incendiary ratio (bomb mix) used in Europe to deter civil defence and firefighters (high explosives) so as to allow other bombs to start mass fires in old wooden dwelling areas of cities (incendiaries). This led to the firestorms in many Japanese cities in 1945. Tibbets had been personally given (by Oppenheimer) all the nuclear effects data from the Trinity nuclear test, and was able to negotiate the strategy.

Kindness or cruelness? Tibbets makes it clear in his autobiography, The Tibbets Story, that the death figures in Hiroshima and Nagasaki - even if you assume that there were a vast number of Korean workers and Japanese soldiers present to boost the casualty toll - the suffering in Hiroshima and Nagasaki was totally trivial in comparison to the firestorm effects at Tokyo and in daily combat in Burma, the Pacific, and the expected invasion of Japan. (Everyone agrees on the percentage of people killed in each city or at any distance from ground zero, but there are vast differencies in casualty figures which are due to assumptions about the population before the bombs fell, ie, the Americans took minimal figures based on the solid data in the detained food rationing records, while the Japanese assume that the populations were several times bigger, so that most people were living on a starvation diet by sharing rations with unregistered persons; if the latter is indeed true, you can see why the LD50 for radiation was so low in the cities, and why moderate burns injuries in conjunction with radiation killed so many more people than are established on the basis of burns and radiation data at Chernobyl.)

So on balance, when you see the immense total number of victims of the ongoing Pacific war involving Japan, and the total number of cities totalled and civilian casualties caused, dropping the bombs did end the war and it did end the ongoing troubles. The issue is that the effects at Hiroshima and Nagasaki are often exaggerated by pacifists for disarmament reasons, by the military and politicians for maximising the efficiency of nuclear deterrence (which after all is a perception based psychological concept), and by the media for the purpose of selling films and journals. The result is that people end up being taught that the only serious bombing in World War II or in Japan was Hiroshima and Nagasaki, when in fact the areas burned out and the casualty tolls from those nuclear bombed cities are mere trivial in the big picture of carnage.

So the moral is really, not to get into a World War in the first place if you can. It is not a matter of merely banning nuclear weapons, despite all the popular media hype which sells the contrary message that disarmament will cure all fascism and genocidal problems and create utopia, etc.

Kindness is the most abused propaganda term ever. One person's self-confidence is viewed by another as arrogance. But one person's kindness is judged on the person's looks, their wealth, etc.

Nobody poor and ugly who pesters others for a better world is likely to be judged kind by anybody, more likely they will judge such a person selfish in the extreme.

However, someone rich and beautiful who does the same thing is judged the essence of kindness, at least by the politically expedient media/politicians.

So it was with Jesus, who is widely held to have started Christmas. Actually, he didn't, it's a Pagan festival (hence Santa, Christmas Trees, Sparkling lights, presents, mince pies, turkey).

Jesus was attacked by popular fascism. He was judged and sentenced as an unkind and selfish egotistic person who, because he hated the corruptness of orthodox religion - the money makers in the Temple, and the sale of animals for sacrifice, etc. - and drove out corruption with a whip, was crucified.

How can such a person be kind? Well, there are some people today who say Einstein was kind. That wasn't exactly what Poincare thought. Kindness is relative, depending on what you choose to open your eyes to, and also what you choose to dismiss as being junk.

The beautiful TV star - a big time journalist or politician, etc. - who says a nice word about someone ill, will fill the next days papers with their photos, and increase their book sales and speech contracts beyond belief. Everyone will be genuinely impressed at their humility to stoop so low as to do something kind!

Of course, at the other end of the scale are the bitter people who thing - insanely - that nuclear weapons which 'created so much suffering' by ending World War II and deterring World War III, are totally unkind and evil. But of course people wanted Jesus crucified, so mass insanity is nothing new, really. The idea that people have evolved so much more logic in 2000 years that they now don't make stupid mistakes is just at odds with evolution, which indicates that much longer time scales will be required, and is also at odds with recent history of wars, genocide, etc.

This is why "controversy" - which is largely down to people using the same words to mean different things, or different words to mean the same thing (one person being "arrogant" to someone and "self-confident" to another) - can merrily continue to be used as an excuse to maintain status quo.

Anyone who puts forward objective facts and hard, solid evidence which end the "controversy" is simply blacklisted and banned from contributing those facts and that solid evidence, which naturally would upset the current mindset of the bigots in charge of society.

President Bush and Prime Minister Blair have objectively done some good by getting rid of Saddam from Iraq, and hanging him will send out a very kind message to the world's other genocidal dictators, a message that all their bleating and noise won't count for anything.

Fascists rely on the media and fellow-travellers and corruption. There is of course a lot of this in President Bush and Prime Minister Blair, as evidenced by their eagerness to get into a war using falsified claims in an area where oil is being produced, and their total couldn't-give-a-damn attitude towards other dictators in other countries across the world, who as as bad or worse than Saddam.

However, if they at least hang Saddam, it will send out a strong deterrent message. The message will be: no matter how much cash you stash in Swiss bank accounts, there is a chance - albeit a slim one - that you will be brought to justice and will end up being hung, not relaxing in a protected jail being fed and exercised regularly like some kind of prized pet.

That's kindness. Not kindness to Saddam or his fellow fascist murderers, but kindness to everyone else who has an ounce of compassion for his victims and the suffering he has caused.

Dr Dorothy Rowe is a psychologist and I want to comment briefly on two of her books which were published when I was aged 11 and 13, respectively:

Depression: The Way out of Your Prison (Routledge, 1983) and Living with the Bomb, can we live without enemies (Routledge, 1985).

The first book is very good and worth reading by many people. I had a spell under the weather when a kid at school (aged 5-15 say) because of a hearing problem (only hearing low frequencies) which caused speech defects, which didn't exactly make my life much fun amongst fascist fellow kids, who thought it disgusting/hilarious, while the medical profession carefully took many years over diagnosing the problem, and fixing it.

So I found Dorothy Rowe's book about depression very helpful, particularly (in view of my Catholic upbringing) the her description of the Christian notion of God as being a complete 's***', a person/being which is extremely extravagant to in making stars and galaxies but doesn't actually give a d*** about human affairs. While I disagree with many of Dr Richard Dawkin's religious ideas, I like his description of the natural world as a place of barbarity in which millions of animals are always eating one another in the jungles. (It is not a beautiful world, unless your idea of beauty is akin to Adolf Hitler's or, even worse, Joseph Stalin's.)

However, Dorothy Rowe's other book, Living with the Bomb, is almost as depressing as the other book is enlightening. Her view of war is that it is created by an innate human desire to hate strangers, which conveniently for the time of publication (1985) is politically expedient to the far left, blaming Hitler's enemies as much as himself. On the other hand, there is a desire for the crowd to hate strangers, in the sense that my inability to speak properly at school made me hated. But I don't think that hating strangers had anything to do with the causes of World War II or World War I, or the Cold War, which was not a hatred of strangers, but a hatred of genocidal dictatorship and suppression of liberty, or in the case of the First World War, plain greed.

Regards the Second World War, you have to ask the difficult question of 'who started it?' from the pacifist context: Britain declared war on Germany after Germany invaded Poland. Germany did not go around declaring war first on us. It is the corrupted historian who claims that! You get into terrible arguments with bigots over this, who are sure that Germany started the war. In effect they did if you think that Hitler thought that he was automatically forcing Britain to declare war by invading Poland. Actually, Hitler hoped that Britain's Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain (whom Hitler had personally met at Munich in 1938 over tea and cakes, where Chamberlain appeased Hitler after Hitler's aggression, in return for a peace pledge from Hitler) would choose pacifism and let Hitler go about invading places without starting a war.

A heresy it may seem, but a fact it is: Hitler wanted world domination peacefully, if he could get it. His idea of war was not throwing bombs about, but sending his enemies into slave concentration camps to be worked to the bone, before being thrown into incinerators and burned, or used in warped scientific experiments to find out the effects of a sudden vacuum, or immersion in freezing water, on human beings.

The whole idea that war is the biggest terror, and that bombs are the threat, is just crazy. Why won't people see the plain fact: weapons aren't clearly defined. A gas chamber is just a room filled with gas. There is no need to have weapons of mass destruction to slaughter millions. How many people can a stick kill? Or a stone? Or a machete? We know from recent genocide in Africa that guns and bombs are limited in what they produce. It is fascism, not weapons, which are the number one problem. The H-bomb is not going to wipe everyone out, more likely it will deter the worst of fascism, but simpler, older weapons could be used in a world war if the world were disarmed of nuclear deterrence. But of course that is heresy. So don't listen!

Update 1

Dr Mario Rabinowitz has very kindly emailed me his perceptive comments about the problems:

'It is unbelievable that a second rate intellect like Hitler could rise to power at a time when Germany was at its zenith and led the world in Science, Mathematics, Literature, Music, and the arts in general. Perhaps it goes to show that in the real world MPQ (manipulative practical quotient) is more important than IQ.

'One of the greatest mathematicians, David Hilbert, stayed and survived through the Nazi regime. When asked how he managed to do it, he said that to survive he had to act as crazy as those in power.

'Your words near the end of your essay, "There is no need to have weapons of mass destruction to slaughter millions. How many people can a stick kill? Or a stone? Or a machete?" reminded me of a poem "The Conquerors" by Phyllis McGinley that I memorized as a youth. As I recall, the beginning and the end go something like this:

"The Conquerors" by Phyllis McGinley

It seems vainglorious and proud
of Atomic man to boast aloud
his prowess homicidal
while with rude stones and humble spears
our sires at wiping out their peers
were almost never idle...

Though doubtless now with shrewd machines
we can blow the world to smithereens
more tidily and so on
lets give credit where credit is due
their ways were course, their weapons few
but ah! how wonderously they slew
with what they had to go on.'

Update 2

There seems to be a sequence with three steps to fascism:

(1) stereotyping individuals into groups by category, with/without rational justification.

(2) prejudiced irrational dislike of particular groups of stereotyped individuals.

(3) bigotry by attacking individuals you perceive to be members of disliked stereotypes.

The first step is commonplace and regularly used in the media without comment. Individuals don't usually complain when they are introduced in a stereotyping way, by saying their religion or race or other personal characteristics which usually just aren't strictly relevant. You'd complain if you were introduced as a person 'who wears glasses' or who 'doesn't wear glasses', unless you are visiting an opticians or similar, where it would be relevant. Even then, it is not a stereotyping issue, because everyone's eyesight details are different.

6 Comments:

At 1:57 PM, Blogger nige said...

Some gentle discussion with an anti-Jesus bigot:

http://viciousmomma.blogspot.com/2006/11/assumptions-and-saviors.html


nigel said...
"Jesus had to be crucified. In fact most saviors seem to end up getting killed. That's kind of a shame, but I guess that's the best way to make an impact or point, well, as long as you have a sizeable audience. Without that, it's kind of a waste." [- Rae Ann]

Jesus was a failure as a preacher because he only had a real fan club of eleven. OK there were twelve disciples officially, but Doubting Thomas and Judas the Betrayer don't count really. I give eleven not ten because I'll be generous to womankind and include Mary Magdalein as a fan.

Actually, Jesus' mother was present at his crucifixion as well, so you could say he had twelve true followers, including the two Mary's.

The Sermon on the Mount was of course listened to by a vast crowd, but that was one sermon, and the people went away afterward.

Likewise, Jesus' arrival into Jerusalem on a donkey was greeted by many. But supposedly many of those same people - admittedly excited by some bitter incitement of hatred caused by the Chief Priests of the Synagogue, after Jesus had created a riot with a whip, driving the animals and money changers out of the temple and proclaiming himself Son of God - shouted to Pilate that Jesus deserved crucifiction for heresy. (Brababas the thief who had been due to be crucified was released by Pilate at their request as per passover custom, when Pilate would have preferred to have had the criminal executed and to have released the heretic.)

As you point out, we would know nothing whatever about Jesus today if he hadn't been crucified.

It was vital to get over the message he had. It turned a routine prophet, one of hundreds, into a legend. Being Catholic, and confirmed, I really like Jesus the heretic. I'm not so keen on the "magic tricks", more the social justices and philosophy.

Jesus clearly emerges as a real character if you read the New Testament and assume nothing whatsoever has changed in the past twenty centuries since he was crucified.

His advice to his disciples to "turn the other cheek" when slapped in the face, was literally a matter of giving cheek to embarrass them in front of people for their being violent!

So much that is evident when read in context is covered up by ignorant morons who think Jesus was pro-organised religion and wasn't really a heretic (presumably they think He wasn't crucified either for being a heretic).

The deep message of Jesus is to do what's right, not what organised religion - driven by political expediency and motivated by profit, greed, egotism and selfishness - preaches.

Jesus didn't come armed with an endorsement signed by God, like a police pass, to show people. His crucifixion proved where his values lay.

Monday, November 06, 2006 3:17:18 PM


Rae Ann said...
Yeah, that's pretty much what it takes.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006 9:33:11 AM


DHammett said...
Nigel -

Jesus was no heretic. He held fast to the teachings of the scriptures (Old Testament) and frequently referenced them. His only "heresy", if you will, was not to blindly accept what the Pharisees and Sadducees preached, because they corrupted scripture and created laws of their own.

To say that His crucifixion was anything other than a selfless act for our salvation is to pervert all for which He lived and died.

And He did have God's endorsement. Take, for example, Matthew 3:17 when, just after Jesus is baptized, God says: "This is my beloved Son, in whom I am well pleased." Or, during the transfiguration, when Jesus appeared with Moses and Elijah, when God said the same thing (Matt 17:5).

While the crucifixion certainly brought Jesus and His ministry to the forefront, to lump Him in with other prophets is to deny His divinity and purpose. The crucifixion was not a publicity grab, as you insinuate, to set him apart from other prophets. It was for our salvation. Period. Jesus' place above prophets, and all other men for that matter, is based on what He did for us...something no other man could ever achieve.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006 10:25:11 AM


nigel said...
"Jesus was no heretic. ... His only "heresy" ..." - dhammett

LOL

Wednesday, November 08, 2006 8:32:12 AM


nigel said...
"The crucifixion was not a publicity grab ... [it was] to set him apart from other prophets." - dhammett

LOL

Wednesday, November 08, 2006 8:33:45 AM


nigel said...
"To say that His crucifixion was anything other than a selfless act for our salvation is to pervert all for which He lived and died." - dhammett

That's what I said, dear Mr bigot liar dhammett (who thinks He is God himself and that sneering at other people is clever and that he won't burn in hell for eternity as a result). LOL

Wednesday, November 08, 2006 8:38:14 AM


nigel said...
The Gospel of Matthew is one of the most corrupted of the Gospels - all are in disagreement, but that one lays emphasis on supernatural stuff.

God doesn't like liars, they burn in hell. So beware you get your facts straight, Mr bigot. LOL

Wednesday, November 08, 2006 8:40:11 AM


nigel said...
"While the crucifixion certainly brought Jesus and His ministry to the forefront, to lump Him in with other prophets is to deny His divinity and purpose." - dhammett


THIS IS A PLAIN LIE.

Jesus is not lumped with other prophets, UNLIKE OTHER PROPHETS - as i EMPHASISED - Jesus was generally hated during his lifetime.

It is THIS FACT above all otherw which shows him genuine.

Also, his dying words 'Eloi, Eloi, lama sabachthani!' don't accord with your claim of a hotline to God.

If Jesus did have infinite powers, it wouldn't be impressive that He be crucified because you'd then be wondering if He simply switched the pain off and acted during crucifixion.

So, like particle-wave duality, you have to assume (if you are a mythology believer) that Jesus had total power only on occasions and did not as a reflex action switch off the pain when on the cross.

His supernatural powers are present when he is doing good to others, but are not present when he is subjected to pain by others.

He suffers, and is not like superman who automatically bounces bullets off his chest without pain.

I'm a confirmed Catholic, and do believe in Jesus and all he stands for.

That doesn't include the controversies over how many people witnessed the resurrection (in different Gospels the number ranges from zero upward!).

It doesn't include the issue of why the Acts of the Aspostles states Jesus was "hanged on a tree" where the others state he was crucified.

Thanks for demonstrating the bigoted approach to Jesus so viciously. It really makes the point I'm making so much clearer!

Nigel

Wednesday, November 08, 2006 8:49:11 AM


Rae Ann said...
nigel, now who's being a childish name-caller? DHammett can defend himself well enough, but I would appreciate you not abusing my other visitors.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006 8:50:02 AM


nigel said...
Dear Rae Ann,

I'm not abusing him, he was a liar when he stated: "Nigel - Jesus was no heretic."

Remember, Jesus didn't shut his eyes and ears to evil. If people want to make lies about Jesus, then I'm afraid I will defend Jesus and all that he stood for.

So sorry that gentle sarcasm offends bigots so much!

Best,
Nigel

Wednesday, November 08, 2006 8:55:36 AM

 
At 11:55 AM, Blogger nige said...

Comment to

http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/11/prof-summers-in-financial-times.html

Frederick Forsyth (author of “The Day of the Jackle” etc.) has today published a good article on global warming:

“We’re all doomed ... to listen to hot air”, Daily Express, 10 November 2006, p 13:

“Climate mania ... has graduated from a concern to an obsession and now into the realm of mass hysteria. ...

“We are in the hands of three communities, all with a huge vested interest. ...

“First, we have the politicians. They want to charge you many billions in extra taxes. If they called them stealth taxes, you would complain. If they call them saving-the-planet taxes, they reckon you will pay up without a murmur. ...

“Then we have the scientists. Banish the idea that scientists are absent-minded boffins. No chance. Modern eggheads lust after huge research budgets and climate change will keep them going for decades because, with several million variables, world climate is so complex that even Cray supercomputers cannot work it out.

“(These are the same genii who told us in the Seventies that we would all soon die of hypothermia as the planet moved remorselessly into a new Ice Age [due to pollution haze blocking out sunlight]. Whatever happened to that? Never mind, madam, it generated lots of research funds.)

“And we have the media, or some of them. In the ‘Britain is always wrong’ constituency, few stories go down such a treat as news of doom and imminent wipe-out, especially when it is all our fault. (And of course it always is.) ...

“It seems to me that climate change is happening all right but ... 1,500 years ago the Romans guarding Hadrian’s Wall in the far north of Cumbria used to drink wine from their own locally-grown grapes. Vineyards in Cumbria? Yep. You see, it was warmer then.”

What he didn't include is the fact that although some global warming is fact, SO IS THE FACT WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF POLLUTANTS!

The mathematical models the lying global warming "predictions" use assume we are NOT running out of fossil fuels.

If they put the expected decline (see http://www.valdostamuseum.org/hamsmith/futureHist.html#durationcheapoil for graph) into the model, you'd see that the coming end of fossil fuels terminates the global warming issue.

The affordable reserves of oil and other fuels which produce vast quantities of CO2 when used are not sufficient to allow global warming to continue at present levels.

Consensus holds that:

(1) we're running out of CO2 generating fossil fuels from the point of view of resources diminishing, and

(2) we're NOT running out of CO2 generating fossil fuels from the point of view of climatic predictions, which assume CO2 output either REMAINING STABLE, or in most cases INCREASING.

So consensus is self-contradictory (due to political expediency, the need to acknowledge that humans are so mighty and God-like that they have the power to destroy the planet, somehow).

nigel cook | Homepage | 11.10.06 - 6:50 am | #

 
At 4:34 PM, Blogger nige said...

I've noticed some typos in this post, which was written quickly in breaks from programming for clients. I don't have time to correct them right now.

Meanwhile, here are some stats on radiation effects that will be needed in a future post about radiation hysteria:


* Earth's atmosphere is 10 tons/m^2, ie, approximately the same radiation protection as being shielded by 10 metres barrier of water.

* The Moon has no atmosphere, so even at solar minimum, the natural background radiation is far higher (due to enhanced cosmic radiation):

* Minimum background nuclear radiation on Moon = 1 mR/hr (almost all of this is from cosmic radiation)

* Mean background nuclear radiation on Earth = 0.02 mR/hr (typically half this is from cosmic radiation, and half is from naturally radioactive material in the environment like radon-222, radium-226, uranium-238, thorium-232, potassium-40, carbon-14, etc., etc., etc.)

* Hence the minimum background nuclear radiation on the Moon is 50 times higher than on the earth

* EVEN ON EARTH, there are vast differences in natural background radiation from place to place!

London (built on sedimentary clay) has a background of 0.01 mR/hr but areas of Cornwall which were formerly uranium mines, and granite areas in Scotland, have background levels far higher.

* According to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the American Nuclear Society data as of 2003:

"... a U.S. adult receives an average of 360 millirems every year from natural and medical sources. For instance, the American Nuclear Society estimates we receive between 26 and 96 millirems every year from the sun - depending on what elevation we live. We receive about 40 millirems every year from our food. Living in a brick, stone, adobe or concrete house adds seven millirems of exposure every year compared to living in a frame house. Finally, flying coast to coast in a jet airliner gives an exposure of about two millirems on each trip.

"One source of radiation exposure that was not considered in old calculations is from radon gas. Scientists now estimate that Americans average 200 millirems of exposure per year because of it. ...

"Typical radiation exposures for Americans per the American Nuclear Society ...

* Cosmic rays from space = 47 mrem at Denver per year; 28 mrem at St. Louis

* Radioactive minerals in rocls and soil = 63 mrems per year on Colorado Plateau

* Radioactivity from air, water and food = about 240 mrem per year

* About six mrem per chest X-ray, 65 mrem per hip X-ray and 110 mrem for a CAT Scan"

- http://www.wsmr.army.mil/pao/TrinitySite/trnrad.htm

EXCELLENT DOSE CALCULATOR:

http://www.ans.org/pi/resources/dosechart/

The fact that you can double (ie increase by 100%) your annual radiation dose by living in a high altitude city (where the amount of air above you shielding cosmic rays is reduced), was remarked on by Richard P. Feynman in his lectures "This Unscientific Age":

Feynman's argument was along the lines that if anyone was worried about the 1% (or similar) increase in radiation due to nuclear testing, they should be 100 times more worried about the effect of altitude on their dose!

In other words, if you think that ALL RADIATION IS DANGEROUS AND ANY STEPS TAKEN TO REDUCE IT ARE A GODSEND, start off with the biggest source of exposure - cosmic radiation.

Tell people to live at low altitudes and never spend time at high altitudes, never climb mountains, fly aircraft, or (God forbid) get exposed to the intense radiation belts and cosmic radiation in space!

To someone logical, like Feynman, it was plain obvious that all the hysteria over a 1% or so increase in nuclear radiation was plain illogical, and that if radiation is such as terrible hazard the propagandarists should be warning people to stay out of aircraft, off beaches, off mountains, etc.

We should then all be forced to live in caves or holes in the ground. Even then, some very low level, penetrating radiation exposure continues! For example, you can see the Moon 700 metres below ground by counting the directions of cosmic ray muons! See "the moon's shadow, as seen in muons 700m below ground at the Soudan 2 detector":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Moons_shodow_in_muons.gif

Like it or lump it, nuclear radiation can't be eradicated!

It certainly can't be solved by lying propaganda that claims nuclear bombs are unnatural because they produce radiation.

The sun and all stars produce radiation! They ARE nuclear.

 
At 12:08 PM, Blogger nige said...

Copy of a comment to John Horgan's blog http://discovermagazine.typepad.com/horganism/2006/11/will_war_end_st.html

Thank you! The comments of your students, quoted in this post, very much realist, and not idealist.

One mistaken idea, possibly, is that there can be a unity under "one religion". The problem is that even if you have just one religion to begin with, it will grow divisions with time, because people love to argue with one another over details, interpretations, and which parts are central.

Even in the origins of Christianity, you see that Jesus was a Jew, but he created a new branch of religion instead of changing the Jewish religion! (You can't change prejudices.)

Here are a couple of quotations of Jesus the Prince of Peace instructing his disciples to buy swords etc:

"I have come to set fire to the earth, and how I wish it were already kindled! ... Do you suppose I came to establish peace on earth? No indeed, I have come to bring division. For from now on, five members of a family will be divided, three against two and two against three; father against son and son against father, mother against daughter and daughter against mother..." (Luke 12:49-53.)

"You must not think that I have come to bring peace to the earth; I have not come to bring peace, but a sword. I have come to set a man against his father, a daughter against her mother, a son’s wife against her mother-in-law; and a man will find his enemies under his own roof." (Matthew 10:21-22, 34-39.)

"Then Jesus asked them ... if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. ... The disciples said, 'See, Lord, here are two swords.' 'That is enough,' he replied." (Luke 22:35-38.)

Posted by: nigel cook | November 16, 2006 at 08:46 AM

"War is a continuation of politics by other means." - Carl von Clausewitz.

So maybe, the foundation to getting rid of war is getting rid of politics?

Posted by: nigel cook | November 16, 2006 at 09:12 AM

 
At 12:11 PM, Blogger nige said...

http://discovermagazine.typepad.com/horganism/2006/11/can_war_end_stu.html

The problem is that, as the Roman's knew, "Si vis pacem, para bellum".

I remember a 20 part international TV documentary from 1989 called "The Nuclear Age" which showed Dr Herbert York stating that he thought disarmament could stop war by laws regulating nations, just as laws regulate individuals within nations.

Problem is, laws alone don't regulate anything, you need police with reserves of arms (guns, rifles, etc) to deal with serious threats. Scaling this policing up to the international situation, you immediately find that international laws then need armies with possibly nuclear bombs to deter aggression, expansionism, greed, gambling, and the other causes of wars in history.

So Dr York, the weaponeer, was wrong. Then politician (former chemist) Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was also interviewed on the same concluding episode, and she said the exact opposite: you can't reverse the progress in nuclear physics, you can't chemically or physically denaturise uranium or plutonium, and history has repeatedly shown that pacifism or even non-nuclear weapons simply guarantee to can't deter war.

Finally US Secretary of Defense in the Kennedy administration, Robert McNamara, was quoted saying that total disarmament would be counterproductive because anyone secretly making a bomb in a could then hold the world to ransom. After all, Hitler's Nazi Germany rearmed in the 30s very quickly in secret by preparing production blueprints and simply using existing non-military factories with appropriate tooling to manufacture the arms rapidly when needed: it is all about skilled organization and preparation.

If pacifists want to end war, they need to concentrate on human nature first. If you look to recent genocide in dictatorial states in Africa, and under the Stalinist USSR and Nazi Germany, far more people were "peacefully" massacred by gas chambers, starvation, neglect, etc., than died from enemy bullets and bombs (nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were similar other incendiary attacks, like Tokyo, Dresden, Hamburg, etc.; in 40 years, out of 36,500 irradiated Hiroshima survivors 89 have got leukemia in excess control group number, and nepalm/phosphorus long-term injuries are often as serious as radiation injury).

So the problem in stopping war is not banning bombs or bullets, or the machete in the case of some African dictatorships, but the fascism behind them. Primitive weapons may take longer to incur the same number of casualties as a big bomb, but that isn't really a benefit, because the psychological suffering is multiplied by the length of the war. Whereas a bomb or a bullet can only be used once, more primitive weapons can be used endlessly.

Wars have endless causes, ranging from greed (WWI) to altruism (WWII). The Iraq war recently is a hybrid of both these extremes, because Saddam should ideally have been stopped for using mustard gas against the Iranians soldiers in 1983 and particularly he should have been stopped when he used sarin nerve gas against Kurdish civilians in 1988.

Iraq had only been fought as concerns over oil increased, after it invaded Kuwait for example. However, getting rid of Saddam is a step forward if it deters other dictators around the world from genocide (who are not fought because they don't present threats to oil supply).

Bigotry is always a major cause of war, and religion - ironically, perhaps - as a cause for Christian "Just War" or Islamic "Jihad", shows no signs of disappearing.

Posted by: nigel cook | November 15, 2006 at 07:07 AM

(In stating WWII was due to altruism, I'm referring to the declaration of war on Germany by Britain for example. Hitler wanted to continue invading countries with as little opposition as possible, ie, he didn't specifically want a war with powerful opponents, he wanted world domination and cold-blooded genocide with concentration camps, etc.)

Posted by: nigel cook | November 15, 2006 at 07:24 AM

...

Mike,

The Jews versus the Arabs (or vice versa) goes back to 1967 (or thereabouts) when Israel invaded Palestine.

The situation with catholics versus protestants in Northern Ireland and also with the Czechoslovakian break up into Slovakia and Czech Republic, are examples.

At the root of it all is some kind of tribalism, be it cloaked in religion or racist but is ultimately tribalism and bigotry through a hatred or dismissal of other people who are in some way (it doesn't matter what way) "different".

Don't forget the American Civil War which resolved the question of slavery.

Even recently in England, I remember from holidays in the 80s in Cornwall, the locals referring to visitors as "foreigners" even though we are all English. It is quite obvious that the situation in Northern Ireland and in South Africa in the 80s had parallels in the underlying cause.

It all boils down to stereotypes and related prejudices, and anyone with a disability is quite aware of how it operates. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stereotype

However, some wars stem from greed. The American entry into WWI was of course made largely for altruism (to stop Germany killing civilians by sinking merchant shipping). When I say WWI is due to greed, that's from my (English) perspective on the events in Europe leading to WWI. Germany "had to" have a war then because it had invested so much in armaments and if it didn't take the first opportunity to war, would be caught up in a spiralling arms race with its enemies.

Posted by: nigel cook | November 15, 2006 at 01:48 PM


(I'm copying some of my comments to blogs in case they get deleted. I can't in most cases copy other people's comments or the posts themselves that I'm commenting on, because of the limitations of "fair use" in copyright law, which only permits brief quotations for scholarly purposes, not wholesale copying.)

 
At 12:01 PM, Blogger nige said...

Rereading this post as of 21 January 2007, I'm annoyed by the number of typographical and other trivial errors.

For some updates, see

http://nige.wordpress.com/2008/01/17/mechanisms-for-the-lack-of-gravitational-deceleration-at-large-redshifts-ie-between-gravitational-charges-masses-which-are-relativistically-receding-from-one-another/

 

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